The NBA Finals have not yet been played, but the business of the offseason is already generating significant discussion. ESPN's Bobby Marks spoke to several scouts and executives across the league to gather projections on some of the summer's most intriguing free agents — and the picture that emerges is one of a market shaped by a handful of transformative deals that will define the competitive landscape for years to come.

Austin Reaves: The Most Valuable Man In Los Angeles

Austin Reaves represents one of the most compelling free agency cases in the league this summer. The Los Angeles Lakers guard is expected to decline his $14.9 million player option for the 2026-27 season and enter the open market as an unrestricted free agent — a decision that, given his performances over the past two seasons, would be entirely rational.

The consensus among league insiders is that Reaves will remain in Los Angeles, but on a dramatically improved contract. Multiple scouts and executives project a deal in the range of five years and $200 million — substantial, but below his maximum of $239 million given he has fewer than six years of NBA service. One Eastern Conference executive captured the prevailing view with unusual directness, stating that he would be surprised if the annual value of Reaves' deal started with a three rather than a four.

The scale of that projection reflects the extraordinary value Reaves has provided to the Lakers on one of the sport's most undervalued contracts over recent seasons. His ability to score efficiently, facilitate, defend and perform under pressure in playoff conditions — demonstrated consistently alongside Luka Doncic — has convinced the league that he belongs in a rare category of guard who commands near-maximum compensation despite not occupying the first-option role. The Lakers hold his Bird Rights and can exceed the salary cap to retain him, giving Los Angeles a structural advantage over any outside suitor.

Jalen Duren: The Restricted Free Agent Question

Jalen Duren's situation is considerably more complicated. The Detroit Pistons centre is a restricted free agent — meaning Detroit has the right to match any offer sheet a rival team submits — but the events of the 2026 playoffs have introduced uncertainty into what seemed like a straightforward contract discussion at the start of the season.

Duren averaged 19.5 points per game during the regular season in one of the finest breakthrough campaigns the Pistons franchise has witnessed in recent years. His physical presence, rim protection and chemistry with Cade Cunningham made him a central figure in Detroit's push toward playoff respectability. However, his production declined sharply once the postseason began — averaging 10.2 points in what insiders described as a disappointing individual series — and that drop has affected the market's assessment of his maximum value.

The projection from league sources is a new contract approaching $40 million per year — significant money that reflects his age, his regular season excellence and his importance to the Pistons' long-term construction, but below the $239 million maximum that his best-case regular season form might have justified before the playoffs. The question that will define the summer is whether any team with sufficient cap space is willing to submit an offer sheet at that level, forcing Detroit to either match or allow him to depart.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been consistently linked with interest in Duren, though the complexity of simultaneously resolving Austin Reaves' contract situation may limit their ability to engage in a bidding contest. The Pistons are widely expected to retain Duren regardless — the relationship between the player and Cunningham, and the broader trajectory of their rebuild, makes matching any reasonable offer sheet the near-certain outcome.

Mitchell Robinson And The Knicks' Championship Window

The New York Knicks, Eastern Conference champions heading into the NBA Finals, face a meaningful offseason decision regarding Mitchell Robinson. The centre has provided the Knicks with rim protection and rebounding presence, and retaining him would maintain the continuity of a squad that has performed at an elite level throughout the 2026 playoffs. The projection among insiders is that Robinson represents a priority retention for a franchise operating in championship mode — though the precise financial structure of any new deal will be shaped by the Knicks' broader cap commitments.

Isaiah Hartenstein And The Thunder's Financial Reality

Perhaps the most intriguing free agency subplot involves the Oklahoma City Thunder and Isaiah Hartenstein. The veteran centre has been one of the defining contributors of OKC's Western Conference Finals run — his physicality against Victor Wembanyama has been the subject of league-wide analysis — and his current contract includes a team option at $28 million.

The Thunder's financial situation, however, is evolving in a direction that makes exercising that option a genuine question rather than a certainty. Oklahoma City have accumulated significant salary commitments tied to their core young players, and the luxury tax implications of retaining multiple ancillary contributors at elevated salaries will require careful management. If the team option is declined and Hartenstein enters free agency, multiple large-market teams are expected to pursue him aggressively — with a player who has demonstrated this level of playoff impact likely commanding a significant premium over his current $28 million figure.

The Broader Market

Beyond these headline cases, several other players are expected to generate meaningful free agency activity. Ayo Dosunmu, who was named the 2026 Most Improved Player following his mid-season trade to the Minnesota Timberwolves, figures to command a significant raise from a team that cannot afford to repeat the error of allowing Nickeil Alexander-Walker to depart the previous summer. Walker Kessler of the Utah Jazz has attracted interest from the Bulls and Lakers as a cost-controlled centre option, while Peyton Watson and Robert Williams III round out a free agent class with depth across positions.

The summer's contract market will be shaped fundamentally by the resolution of the NBA Finals — which team wins, which players' values are enhanced by championship performance, and how each franchise's financial flexibility is affected by the results. What is already clear is that the summer of 2026 will deliver the most expensive free agent market in recent NBA history, with the combination of rising salary cap figures and an unusually strong field of available talent creating conditions for record-breaking contract values across multiple positions.